NAC Breda vs Heracles – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host Heracles at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Heracles have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Heracles — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for NAC Breda, 3 for Heracles and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Heracles in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 53% versus Heracles 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 56% | Heracles 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.68 xG and Heracles 2.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.909 / defence 1.212 | Heracles attack 1.363 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.884 / away 1.433. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — the away xG of 2.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 NAC Breda games / 10 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 27% | Draw 20% | Heracles 53%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.70 | Draw 5.00 | Heracles 1.89. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 2.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heracles at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 40% | Heracles 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 27% | Draw 20% | Heracles 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 74% | xG NAC Breda 1.68 / Heracles 2.37 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.909 / def 1.212 | Heracles attack 1.363 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.884 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Heracles (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
2.37
Heracles xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Heracles kick off?
NAC Breda vs Heracles is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Where is NAC Breda vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Heracles part of?
NAC Breda vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 27% chance of winning, Heracles a 53% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both NAC Breda and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Heracles?
Record (6 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 1 | Heracles 3W.
What form are NAC Breda and Heracles in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Heracles (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.91) and Heracles's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 2.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
27%
3.68
20%
5.12
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
4.05
2.37
Heracles xG
3.68
27%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.80
Clean Sheet
9%
10.68
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
3%
39.25
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for NAC Breda and 2.37 for Heracles, a combined total of 4.05.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NAC Breda come into this having played 45 games, going 12W 13D 20L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 1.04 PPG from 45 outings (14W 5D 26L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.09 PPG, Heracles on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
NAC Breda's home form reads 8W 5D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.77 points per game from 22 outings (5W 2D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.58 scored and 2.18 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Heracles in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 12W 13D 20L in their last 45 games (1.09 PPG), while Heracles have gone 14W 5D 26L in their last 45 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Heracles away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.32 PPG; Heracles away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
NAC Breda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Heracles won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Heracles have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Heracles 0-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 50%, Heracles 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for NAC Breda and 77% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 32% of games; Heracles in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 59% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of NAC Breda's matches and 77% of Heracles's.
Do NAC Breda and Heracles tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Heracles in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.