NAC Breda vs Dordrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Dordrecht (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward NAC Breda. A 1.00 PPG lead over Dordrecht (1.80 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: NAC Breda 2W, Dordrecht 3W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 52% versus Dordrecht 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 52% | Dordrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.78 xG and Dordrecht 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.863 / defence 1.023 | Dordrecht attack 0.814 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.827 / away 1.580. Data: 13 NAC Breda games / 51 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 48% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 28%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Dordrecht 3.57. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 50% | Dordrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 48% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG NAC Breda 1.78 / Dordrecht 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.863 / def 1.023 | Dordrecht attack 0.814 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.827 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Dordrecht xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Dordrecht kick off?
NAC Breda vs Dordrecht is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Where is NAC Breda vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Dordrecht part of?
NAC Breda vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 48% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both NAC Breda and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Dordrecht?
Record (7 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 2 | Dordrecht 3W.
What form are NAC Breda and Dordrecht in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.86x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.81x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
48%
2.06
23%
4.32
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.10
1.32
Dordrecht xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
5%
21.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.32 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 15D 20L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.04 PPG from 48 outings (12W 14D 22L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.04 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
NAC Breda's home form reads 8W 6D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (5W 7D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.25 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 67%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 13W 15D 20L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 12W 14D 22L in their last 48 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Dordrecht away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.30 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 6 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-3 on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
2
Draws
3
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Dordrecht?
From 7 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Dordrecht have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2026, when Dordrecht 0-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 52%, Dordrecht 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (NAC Breda) and 65% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of NAC Breda's games and 74% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of NAC Breda's recent games and 65% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Dordrecht tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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