NAC Breda vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. NAC Breda's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of De Graafschap's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: NAC Breda 3W, De Graafschap 2W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 53% and De Graafschap 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 56% | De Graafschap 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.74 xG and De Graafschap 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.913 / defence 1.205 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 11 NAC Breda games / 48 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 39% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 39%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.56 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 2.56. The draw (22%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 22% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 40% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 39% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG NAC Breda 1.74 / De Graafschap 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.913 / def 1.205 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Draw (22%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.73
De Graafschap xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs De Graafschap kick off?
NAC Breda vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 14 May 2027 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Where is NAC Breda vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs De Graafschap part of?
NAC Breda vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 39% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 39% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both NAC Breda and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and De Graafschap?
Record (7 meetings): NAC Breda 3W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and De Graafschap in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
NAC Breda's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.98x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 11/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
39%
2.57
22%
4.46
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.46
1.73
De Graafschap xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
7%
14.47
7%
14.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.73 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 12W 13D 20L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 20W 11D 14L from 45 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NAC Breda.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (8W 5D 9L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 8W 7D 7L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.87 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 76%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 12W 13D 20L in their last 45 games (1.09 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 20W 11D 14L in their last 45 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.32 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and De Graafschap?
From 7 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 3, De Graafschap have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when De Graafschap 1-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and De Graafschap?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 50%, De Graafschap 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NAC Breda) and 73% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of NAC Breda's games and 73% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of NAC Breda's matches and 73% of De Graafschap's.
Do NAC Breda and De Graafschap tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.