MVV vs Vitesse – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from MVV's attack rating (0.95) and Vitesse's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (0.83x) against MVV's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.15
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
MVV xG
Total xG
2.92
1.05
Vitesse xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
3%
31.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are MVV and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for MVV and 1.05 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.