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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC OSS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over MVV.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC OSS beat MVV 0-2 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.38 xG and FC OSS 1.64 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. MVV fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.85 / defence 1.24 against FC OSS attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 32% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 44%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 59%, FC OSS 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC OSS's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — MVV 1.04 PPG, FC OSS 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights