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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat MVV 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen beat MVV 1-2 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.71 xG and Emmen 1.44 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Emmen attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 44% | Draw 24% | Emmen 32%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 62%, Emmen 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Emmen's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — MVV 1.30 PPG, Emmen 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights