MVV vs Den Bosch – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Den Bosch travel to De Geusselt to take on MVV. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 January 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
MVV — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV at De Geusselt this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Den Bosch are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for MVV, 3 for Den Bosch and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
MVV trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Den Bosch trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — MVV 57% and Den Bosch 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 63% | Den Bosch 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.10 xG and Den Bosch 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.733 / defence 1.148 | Den Bosch attack 1.053 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.827 / away 1.580. MVV's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 MVV games / 51 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 22% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 56%. Fair-value odds: MVV 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Den Bosch 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: MVV 50% | Den Bosch 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 22% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG MVV 1.10 / Den Bosch 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.733 / def 1.148 | Den Bosch attack 1.053 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.827 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Den Bosch xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Den Bosch kick off?
MVV vs Den Bosch is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 15 January 2027 at De Geusselt.
Where is MVV vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Den Bosch part of?
MVV vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 22% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both MVV and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Den Bosch?
Record (10 meetings): MVV 4W | Draws 3 | Den Bosch 3W.
What form are MVV and Den Bosch in?
MVV (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from MVV's attack rating (0.73) and Den Bosch's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
22%
4.63
22%
4.51
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
MVV xG
Total xG
3.01
1.91
Den Bosch xG
4.63
22%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
15%
6.75
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
3%
31.26
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are MVV and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for MVV and 1.91 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
MVV's recent record stands at 14W 13D 24L from 51 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 22L across 51 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.08 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, MVV have managed 9W 6D 11L from 26 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 8W 3D 15L across 26 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
MVV are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.63 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch in 75%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 14W 13D 24L in their last 51 games (1.08 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 17W 12D 22L in their last 51 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Den Bosch away?
MVV's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.27 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between MVV and Den Bosch runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 23 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2025, when MVV won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
3
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 4, Den Bosch have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2026, when Den Bosch 2-2 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Den Bosch?
MVV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 62%, Den Bosch 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for MVV and 73% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of MVV's games and 65% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of MVV's matches and 73% of Den Bosch's.
Do MVV and Den Bosch tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.