MVV vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 31 as MVV welcome De Graafschap to De Geusselt. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. MVV have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
MVV's home record at De Geusselt: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
MVV carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for MVV, 4 for De Graafschap and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
MVV in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — MVV 56% and De Graafschap 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 62% | De Graafschap 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.37 xG and De Graafschap 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.718 / defence 1.062 | De Graafschap attack 0.876 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.933 / away 1.581. MVV's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 MVV games / 45 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 35% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 40%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
De Graafschap lead the H2H ledger, but MVV carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form MVV (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: MVV 50% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 35% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG MVV 1.37 / De Graafschap 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.718 / def 1.062 | De Graafschap attack 0.876 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.933 / away 1.581 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.47
De Graafschap xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs De Graafschap kick off?
MVV vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 15:30 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at De Geusselt.
Where is MVV vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs De Graafschap part of?
MVV vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 35% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both MVV and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): MVV 2W | Draws 4 | De Graafschap 4W.
What form are MVV and De Graafschap in?
MVV (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates MVV's attack at 0.72x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
35%
2.84
25%
4.00
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
MVV xG
Total xG
2.84
1.47
De Graafschap xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
8%
12.35
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are MVV and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for MVV and 1.47 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, MVV have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 13W 12D 20L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for MVV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap's form line: 18W 11D 16L from 45 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.13 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, MVV have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 9W 7D 7L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.82 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 76%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 13W 12D 20L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 18W 11D 16L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.30 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
MVV
4
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 2, De Graafschap have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did MVV and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when MVV 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between MVV and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — MVV at 61%, De Graafschap at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for MVV and 70% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of MVV's games and 74% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of MVV's matches and 70% of De Graafschap's.
Do MVV and De Graafschap tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.