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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out MVV 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat MVV 3-4 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.04 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.17 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ADO Den Haag outscored their 2.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.46 / defence 0.62, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 17% | Draw 20% | ADO Den Haag 63%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 55%, ADO Den Haag 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. MVV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights