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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Roda cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jong Utrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda beat Jong Utrecht 1-3 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.58 xG and Roda 1.54 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Roda outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Roda attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 39% | Draw 24% | Roda 37%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 59%, Roda 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights