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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Jong Utrecht 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat Jong Utrecht 2-3 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 0.82 xG and FC Volendam 1.61 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.64 / defence 1.11 against FC Volendam attack 1.15 / defence 0.76, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 18% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 55%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 52%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

FC Volendam's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights