Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 25 as Jong Utrecht welcome FC OSS to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Jong Utrecht haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC OSS — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC OSS haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC OSS's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong Utrecht at 1.30 PPG versus FC OSS's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Utrecht register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC OSS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC OSS have the better historical record — 5 wins from 10 previous contests against 2 for Jong Utrecht.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with FC OSS winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC OSS have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FC OSS trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 60% and FC OSS 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 60% | FC OSS 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.66 xG and FC OSS 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 1.038 / defence 1.046 | FC OSS attack 0.987 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.421. Data: 38 Jong Utrecht games / 38 FC OSS games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 42% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | FC OSS 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 70% | FC OSS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 8 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 42% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.66 / FC OSS 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 1.038 / def 1.046 | FC OSS attack 0.987 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.47
FC OSS xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Monday 8 February 2027 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS part of?
Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 42% chance of winning, FC OSS a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Jong Utrecht and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
Record (10 meetings): Jong Utrecht 2W | Draws 3 | FC OSS 5W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 1.04x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
42%
2.36
24%
4.24
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.13
1.47
FC OSS xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
6%
15.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.47 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 12W 10D 16L from 38 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. Jong Utrecht haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 16L across 38 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. FC OSS haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 1.21 PPG, FC OSS on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 5W 8D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.42 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC OSS in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Pre-Season
FC OSS
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or FC OSS away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.53 PPG; FC OSS away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when FC OSS won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
5
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, FC OSS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when FC OSS 3-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong Utrecht at 68%, FC OSS at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Jong Utrecht) and 37% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jong Utrecht's games and 63% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 37% of FC OSS's.
Do Jong Utrecht and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.