Jong Utrecht 1-2 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Emmen (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jong Utrecht face Emmen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch plays host to Jong Utrecht versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong Utrecht have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 games at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Emmen (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Emmen are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Emmen, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 2–3 with Emmen winning.
It is worth noting that Emmen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 49% versus Emmen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 46% | Emmen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.00 xG and Emmen 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.711 / defence 1.104 | Emmen attack 1.006 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.289. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Jong Utrecht games / 41 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 23% | Draw 33% | Emmen 44%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Emmen 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 40% | Emmen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 23% | Draw 33% | Emmen 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.00 / Emmen 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.711 / def 1.104 | Emmen attack 1.006 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Emmen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Emmen xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Emmen kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 2 Emmen.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Emmen part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 23% chance of winning, Emmen a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Emmen?
Record (4 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 0 | Emmen 4W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Emmen in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Emmen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.71) and Emmen's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (1.01x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
23%
4.29
33%
3.05
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.43
1.43
Emmen xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
6%
17.95
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.43 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.68 PPG on a 5W 13D 23L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Emmen's form line: 18W 7D 16L from 41 games, 1.49 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 0.95 PPG from 20 outings (4W 7D 9L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 8W 4D 8L from 20 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.41 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Emmen in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 13D 23L in their last 41 games (0.68 PPG), while Emmen have gone 18W 7D 16L in their last 41 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.95 PPG; Emmen away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Emmen go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
8
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 0, Emmen have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Emmen 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 40%, Emmen 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Jong Utrecht) and 65% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 60% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 65% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Emmen tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Emmen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out Jong Utrecht 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong Utrecht 1-2 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.00 xG and Emmen 1.43 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.71 / defence 1.10 against Emmen attack 1.01 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 23% | Draw 33% | Emmen 44%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 46%, Emmen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.