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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dordrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong Utrecht beat Dordrecht 3-1 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.58 xG and Dordrecht 1.46 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 1.06 / defence 1.16 against Dordrecht attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 35%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 57%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Dordrecht's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Jong Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights