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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Jong Utrecht edge out Den Bosch 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong Utrecht beat Den Bosch 3-2 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.82 xG and Den Bosch 1.43 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Den Bosch attack 0.97 / defence 1.17, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 47% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 30%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 56%, Den Bosch 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.74. Form was overturned, with Jong Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights