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Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Jong Utrecht 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Jong Utrecht 2-3 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.55 xG and De Graafschap 1.80 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap outscored their 1.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against De Graafschap attack 1.22 / defence 0.91, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 33% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 44%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 57%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights