Jong Utrecht 3-2 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 56%, yet in-form Cambuur provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambuur make the trip to Stadion Galgenwaard to face Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 22 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Utrecht (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Utrecht's home record at Stadion Galgenwaard: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Cambuur are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Jong Utrecht — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Cambuur — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 42% versus Cambuur 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 40% | Cambuur 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.76 xG and Cambuur 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.836 / defence 0.733 | Cambuur attack 1.030 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.280. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Jong Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Jong Utrecht's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Jong Utrecht games / 6 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 56% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 20%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Cambuur 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Jong Utrecht (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambuur (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 40% | Cambuur 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 56% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.76 / Cambuur 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.836 / def 0.733 | Cambuur attack 1.030 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cambuur xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Jong Utrecht 3 - 2 Cambuur.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 56% chance of winning, Cambuur a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Cambuur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Cambuur in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Cambuur (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.84) and Cambuur's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (1.03x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.28
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.73
0.97
Cambuur xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
4%
28.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 0.97 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 40 games, going 9W 7D 24L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 0.80 PPG from 40 outings (9W 5D 26L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 0.80 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 7W 4D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Jong Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (3W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.00 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 9W 7D 24L in their last 40 games (0.85 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 9W 5D 26L in their last 40 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Cambuur away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.32 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cambuur have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-4 on 23 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
4
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, Cambuur have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Cambuur 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Utrecht see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 32%, Cambuur 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Jong Utrecht) and 58% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 42% of games; Cambuur in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 47% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 58% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Cambuur tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong Utrecht edge out Cambuur 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Cambuur 3-2 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.76 xG and Cambuur 0.97 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cambuur outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.84 / defence 0.73 against Cambuur attack 1.03 / defence 1.23, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 56% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 20%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 40%, Cambuur 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.85 PPG, Cambuur 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.