Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 75% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host Almere City FC at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Utrecht's home record at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Almere City FC are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Utrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Almere City FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Almere City FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Jong Utrecht's 0 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 2–3 with Almere City FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Almere City FC have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 64% and Almere City FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Utrecht 64% | Almere City FC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 0.95 xG and Almere City FC 2.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.742 / defence 1.179 | Almere City FC attack 1.323 / defence 0.680. League average goals — home 1.884 / away 1.751. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Almere City FC's defence strength of 0.680 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Almere City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — the away xG of 2.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Jong Utrecht games / 44 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 10% | Draw 15% | Almere City FC 75%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 10.00 | Draw 6.67 | Almere City FC 1.33. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 60% | Almere City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 10% | Draw 15% | Almere City FC 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 57% | xG Jong Utrecht 0.95 / Almere City FC 2.73 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.742 / def 1.179 | Almere City FC attack 1.323 / def 0.680 | league avg home 1.884 / away 1.751 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
2.73
Almere City FC xG
57%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 27 November 2026 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 10% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 75% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC?
Record (6 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 5W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 2.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-3 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
10%
9.53
15%
6.79
75%
1.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 3
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.68
2.73
Almere City FC xG
9.53
10%
Home win
6.79
15%
Draw
1.34
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
7%
15.36
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
1%
146.46
29%
3.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 3.2 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 2.73 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 11D 21L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.67 PPG from 45 outings (23W 6D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almere City FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.64 points per game from 22 outings (11W 3D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 2.07 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Almere City FC in 67%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 13W 11D 21L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 23W 6D 16L in their last 45 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.36 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Almere City FC go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2025, when Almere City FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Jong Utrecht
1
Draws
5
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 0, Almere City FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Jong Utrecht 2-3 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong Utrecht at 68%, Almere City FC at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Jong Utrecht and 73% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jong Utrecht's games and 73% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 73% of Almere City FC's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.