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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong Utrecht and ADO Den Haag share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong Utrecht and ADO Den Haag finished level at 2-2 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.30 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.59 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.20 / defence 0.89, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 31% | Draw 25% | ADO Den Haag 44%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 54%, ADO Den Haag 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.59. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights