🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Jong Utrecht and ADO Den Haag share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong Utrecht and ADO Den Haag finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 0.68 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.82 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. ADO Den Haag landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.60 / defence 1.16 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.22 / defence 0.69, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 13% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 64%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 50%, ADO Den Haag 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights