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Prediction vindicated as Jong PSV U21 edge out Willem II 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat Willem II 2-1 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.76 xG and Willem II 1.31 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.88 / defence 1.00 against Willem II attack 0.93 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 48% | Draw 23% | Willem II 29%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 72%, Willem II 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Willem II's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.00 PPG, Willem II 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights