🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Jong PSV U21 edge out VVV Venlo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat VVV Venlo 1-0 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.69 xG and VVV Venlo 1.43 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VVV Venlo landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against VVV Venlo attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 44% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 33%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 72%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

VVV Venlo's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.11 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights