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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as VVV Venlo edge out Jong PSV U21 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VVV Venlo beat Jong PSV U21 1-2 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.08 xG and VVV Venlo 2.46 xG, a combined 4.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.18 / defence 1.63 against VVV Venlo attack 1.16 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 33% | Draw 19% | VVV Venlo 47%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 80% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 73%, VVV Venlo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

VVV Venlo's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.02 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights