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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 6-4 victory over Vitesse.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat Vitesse 6-4 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.01 xG and Vitesse 1.92 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 6-4 for 10 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vitesse outscored their 1.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.02 / defence 1.54 against Vitesse attack 0.91 / defence 1.31, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 40% | Draw 23% | Vitesse 37%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 74%, Vitesse 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Vitesse's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 0.92 PPG, Vitesse 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 2.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights