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Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda beat Jong PSV U21 0-1 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.92 xG and Roda 1.39 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Roda attack 1.10 / defence 1.11, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 50% | Draw 22% | Roda 28%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 72%, Roda 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Roda's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.05 PPG, Roda 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights