Jong PSV U21 vs Roda – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Jong PSV U21 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda beat Jong PSV U21 2-3 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.56 xG and Roda 1.82 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Roda outscored their 1.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.97 / defence 1.45 against Roda attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 32% | Draw 25% | Roda 43%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 74%, Roda 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights