Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 2 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong PSV U21 (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 4W 2D 4L at De Herdgang — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
NAC Breda have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Jong PSV U21's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of NAC Breda's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, NAC Breda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to NAC Breda, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with NAC Breda winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. NAC Breda have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 64% versus NAC Breda 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 67% | NAC Breda 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.20 xG and NAC Breda 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.935 / defence 0.819 | NAC Breda attack 0.988 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.911 / away 1.723. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Jong PSV U21's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Jong PSV U21 games / 5 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 56% | Draw 20% | NAC Breda 24%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | NAC Breda 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Jong PSV U21 (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
NAC Breda lead the H2H ledger, but Jong PSV U21 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 60% | NAC Breda 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 2 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 56% | Draw 20% | NAC Breda 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Jong PSV U21 2.20 / NAC Breda 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.935 / def 0.819 | NAC Breda attack 0.988 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.911 / away 1.723 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.39
NAC Breda xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Monday 2 November 2026 at De Herdgang.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 56% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda?
Record (6 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 5W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.94) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.99x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 44/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
56%
1.79
20%
4.91
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.59
1.39
NAC Breda xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
11%
8.99
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
3%
37.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.39 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 15W 7D 17L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda's form line: 8W 12D 19L from 39 games, 0.92 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Jong PSV U21 are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NAC Breda.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 2W 7D 11L from 20 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.13 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 15W 7D 17L in their last 39 games (1.33 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 8W 12D 19L in their last 39 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or NAC Breda away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.70 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-5 on 4 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
5
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, NAC Breda have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when NAC Breda 2-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 60%, NAC Breda 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Jong PSV U21 and 65% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Jong PSV U21's games and 55% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 65% of NAC Breda's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.