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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong PSV U21 and MVV share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 and MVV finished level at 2-2 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.46 xG and MVV 0.66 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. MVV outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.96 / defence 0.82 against MVV attack 0.58 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 56% | Draw 27% | MVV 17%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 72%, MVV 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

MVV's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.04 PPG, MVV 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. MVV (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights