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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Jong PSV U21 edge out MVV 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat MVV 3-2 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.68 xG and MVV 1.49 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.00 / defence 1.76 against MVV attack 0.68 / defence 1.00, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 42% | Draw 24% | MVV 34%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 76%, MVV 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

MVV's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 0.90 PPG, MVV 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. MVV (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights