Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 15 as Jong PSV U21 welcome Jong Utrecht to De Herdgang. Kick-off is set for Monday 23 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong PSV U21 at De Herdgang this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong PSV U21 1.40 PPG, Jong Utrecht 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong PSV U21 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong Utrecht in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for Jong PSV U21, 3 for Jong Utrecht and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 3–5 with Jong Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Jong Utrecht trading profile (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 64% and Jong Utrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 67% | Jong Utrecht 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.84 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.935 / defence 0.820 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.781 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.911 / away 1.723. Data: 44 Jong PSV U21 games / 44 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 55% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 23%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Jong Utrecht 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Jong PSV U21 (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 60% | Jong Utrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 23 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 55% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.84 / Jong Utrecht 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.935 / def 0.820 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.781 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.911 / away 1.723 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Jong Utrecht xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Monday 23 November 2026 at De Herdgang.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 55% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht?
Record (10 meetings): Jong PSV U21 5W | Draws 2 | Jong Utrecht 3W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong PSV U21's attack at 0.94x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.40
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.95
1.10
Jong Utrecht xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
4%
28.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.10 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 20W 7D 18L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 13W 11D 21L from 45 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.49 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.74 PPG from 23 outings (12W 4D 7L).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 5D 13L from 23 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.47 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Jong Utrecht in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 20W 7D 18L in their last 45 games (1.49 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 13W 11D 21L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.74 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
3
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Jong Utrecht 5-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 56%, Jong Utrecht 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Jong PSV U21) and 56% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Jong PSV U21's games and 61% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 56% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.