🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 16, as Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht drew 3-3 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.64 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.94 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Utrecht outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.66 / defence 1.06, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 54% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 22%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 74%, Jong Utrecht 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.08 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights