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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong Utrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat Jong Utrecht 3-1 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.52 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.39 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.97 / defence 1.67 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.66 / defence 1.53, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 62% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 20%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 76%, Jong Utrecht 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 0.89 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights