Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 29 as Jong PSV U21 welcome Heracles to De Herdgang. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 4W 3D 3L at De Herdgang — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Heracles have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Heracles have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Heracles have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Heracles are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Jong PSV U21, 2 for Heracles and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Heracles trading profile (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 68% and Heracles 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 68% | Heracles 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.49 xG and Heracles 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.827 / defence 0.807 | Heracles attack 1.377 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.933 / away 1.580. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Jong PSV U21 games / 7 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 33% | Draw 23% | Heracles 44%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Heracles 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 60% | Heracles 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 8 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 33% | Draw 23% | Heracles 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.49 / Heracles 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.827 / def 0.807 | Heracles attack 1.377 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.933 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: Heracles (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Heracles xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Monday 8 March 2027 at De Herdgang.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 33% chance of winning, Heracles a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Heracles?
Record (2 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 0 | Heracles 2W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Heracles in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Heracles (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong PSV U21's attack at 0.83x the league average against Heracles's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
33%
3.04
23%
4.34
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.25
1.76
Heracles xG
3.04
33%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
6%
17.61
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.76 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 15W 8D 18L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles's form line: 11W 4D 26L from 41 games, 0.90 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.29 PPG, Heracles on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (10W 5D 6L).
On the road, Heracles have gone 4W 1D 16L from 21 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.44 scored and 2.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Heracles in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Heracles have gone 11W 4D 26L in their last 41 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Heracles away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.67 PPG; Heracles away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Heracles?
From 2 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, Heracles have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2023, when Heracles 3-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 62%, Heracles 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Jong PSV U21 and 76% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jong PSV U21's games and 52% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 76% of Heracles's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Heracles tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Heracles in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.