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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC OSS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat FC OSS 2-0 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.93 xG and FC OSS 1.14 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.24 / defence 1.02 against FC OSS attack 0.75 / defence 0.88, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 55% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 21%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 78%, FC OSS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

FC OSS's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.11 PPG, FC OSS 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights