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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Eindhoven defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Eindhoven beat Jong PSV U21 1-2 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.10 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.16 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.17 / defence 0.96 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 58% | Draw 22% | FC Eindhoven 20%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a FC Eindhoven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 75%, FC Eindhoven 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.18 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights