🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong PSV U21.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Eindhoven beat Jong PSV U21 0-2 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.83 xG and FC Eindhoven 2.81 xG, a combined 4.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.8 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.07 / defence 1.75 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.28 / defence 1.02, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 24% | Draw 18% | FC Eindhoven 58%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 68% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 77%, FC Eindhoven 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 0.92 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights