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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 29, as Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.93 xG and Dordrecht 1.32 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.23 / defence 0.99 against Dordrecht attack 0.91 / defence 0.94, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 51% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 26%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 77%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Dordrecht's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights