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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Jong PSV U21 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat Jong PSV U21 1-2 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.35 xG and Dordrecht 2.23 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.05 / defence 1.59 against Dordrecht attack 1.07 / defence 0.78, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 22% | Draw 21% | Dordrecht 57%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 75%, Dordrecht 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Dordrecht's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights