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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Jong PSV U21.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat Jong PSV U21 2-4 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.59 xG and Den Bosch 1.68 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Den Bosch outscored their 1.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.00 / defence 1.58 against Den Bosch attack 0.82 / defence 0.97, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 36% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 40%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 75%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 0.93 PPG, Den Bosch 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights