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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Jong PSV U21 defy the odds to beat Cambuur 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat Cambuur 3-2 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.70 xG and Cambuur 1.73 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against Cambuur attack 1.14 / defence 0.83, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 37% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 38%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Jong PSV U21 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 77%, Cambuur 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Cambuur's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Jong PSV U21 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights