🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Cambuur at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Jong PSV U21 host Cambuur at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Jong PSV U21's home record at PSV Campus De Herdgang: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cambuur — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Jong PSV U21, 1 for Cambuur and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Cambuur winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

Cambuur in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 66% and Cambuur 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 74% | Cambuur 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.47 xG and Cambuur 2.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.084 / defence 1.561 | Cambuur attack 1.305 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.274. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — the away xG of 2.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Jong PSV U21 games / 62 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 20% | Draw 18% | Cambuur 62%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 5.00 | Draw 5.56 | Cambuur 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.07. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.07 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 2.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.07 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 90% | Cambuur 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights