Jong PSV U21 1-4 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Cambuur at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's home record at PSV Campus De Herdgang: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cambuur — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Jong PSV U21, 1 for Cambuur and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 66% and Cambuur 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 74% | Cambuur 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.47 xG and Cambuur 2.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.084 / defence 1.561 | Cambuur attack 1.305 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.274. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — the away xG of 2.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Jong PSV U21 games / 62 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 20% | Draw 18% | Cambuur 62%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 5.00 | Draw 5.56 | Cambuur 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.07. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.07 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 2.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.07 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 90% | Cambuur 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 10 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 20% | Draw 18% | Cambuur 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 72% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.47 / Cambuur 2.60 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.084 / def 1.561 | Cambuur attack 1.305 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
2.60
Cambuur xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 10 February 2025 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 4 Cambuur.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 20% chance of winning, Cambuur a 62% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur?
Record (3 meetings): Jong PSV U21 2W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Cambuur (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong PSV U21's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 2.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 1-3 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
20%
4.98
18%
5.43
62%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.3%
Away win
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
4.07
2.60
Cambuur xG
4.98
20%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
1.63
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
7%
13.41
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
1%
66.75
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 2.60 for Cambuur, a combined total of 4.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 62 games, going 17W 10D 35L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.42 PPG from 62 outings (26W 10D 26L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 8W 6D 16L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.50 points per game from 30 outings (14W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.69 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Cambuur in 61%.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 10D 35L in their last 62 games (0.98 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 26W 10D 26L in their last 62 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.00 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2025, when Cambuur won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, Cambuur have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 3-2 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong PSV U21 at 77%, Cambuur at 53%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Jong PSV U21 and 60% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Jong PSV U21's games and 53% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 60% of Cambuur's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Cambuur tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Jong PSV U21 1-4 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.47 xG and Cambuur 2.60 xG, a combined 4.07. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Cambuur outscored their 2.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.08 / defence 1.56 against Cambuur attack 1.30 / defence 0.82, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 20% | Draw 18% | Cambuur 62%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 74%, Cambuur 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.