Jong AZ 0-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AFAS Trainingscomplex plays host to Jong AZ versus Vitesse in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 13 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
Vitesse (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Vitesse have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Jong AZ's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Vitesse's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Vitesse — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 66% and Vitesse 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 71% | Vitesse 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.28 xG and Vitesse 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.525 / defence 0.959 | Vitesse attack 0.843 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.300. Jong AZ carry an above-average attack strength of 1.525 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Jong AZ games / 4 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 63% | Draw 24% | Vitesse 14%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Vitesse 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 80% | Vitesse 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 63% | Draw 24% | Vitesse 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Jong AZ 2.28 / Vitesse 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.525 / def 0.959 | Vitesse attack 0.843 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Vitesse xG
61%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Vitesse kick off?
Jong AZ vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Vitesse?
Jong AZ 0 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is Jong AZ vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Vitesse part of?
Jong AZ vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 63% chance of winning, Vitesse a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jong AZ and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Vitesse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong AZ and Vitesse in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Vitesse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.52x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 2.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (0.84x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
63%
1.60
24%
4.23
14%
7.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.33
1.05
Vitesse xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
7.23
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
10%
9.74
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
1%
70.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.05 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 16W 9D 13L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vitesse's form line: 7W 8D 23L from 38 games, 0.76 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Jong AZ are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vitesse.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 2.06 PPG from 18 outings (12W 1D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Jong AZ are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vitesse have gone 5W 0D 13L from 18 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 0.92 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
Vitesse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 16W 9D 13L in their last 38 games (1.50 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 7W 8D 23L in their last 38 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Vitesse away?
Jong AZ's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 2.06 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 4-0 on 12 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
1
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 1, Vitesse have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Vitesse 2-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 61%, Vitesse 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Jong AZ and 67% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 44% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Jong AZ's matches and 67% of Vitesse's.
Do Jong AZ and Vitesse tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitesse defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Jong AZ 0-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.28 xG and Vitesse 1.05 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong AZ fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.52 / defence 0.96 against Vitesse attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 63% | Draw 24% | Vitesse 14%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 71%, Vitesse 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Vitesse's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Vitesse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.