Jong AZ vs NAC Breda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 19 as Jong AZ welcome NAC Breda to AFAS Trainingscomplex. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ's home record at AFAS Trainingscomplex: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.20 PPG versus NAC Breda's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong AZ register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, NAC Breda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
NAC Breda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Jong AZ's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2024, ended 2–3 with NAC Breda winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. NAC Breda have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 65% versus NAC Breda 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 72% | NAC Breda 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.81 xG and NAC Breda 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.774 / defence 0.962 | NAC Breda attack 0.981 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.884 / away 1.751. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Jong AZ games / 6 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 42% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 36%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.38 | Draw 4.55 | NAC Breda 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 60% | NAC Breda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 11 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 42% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Jong AZ 1.81 / NAC Breda 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.774 / def 0.962 | NAC Breda attack 0.981 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.884 / away 1.751 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.65
NAC Breda xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs NAC Breda kick off?
Jong AZ vs NAC Breda is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 11 December 2026 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Where is Jong AZ vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs NAC Breda part of?
Jong AZ vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 42% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Jong AZ and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and NAC Breda?
Record (6 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 5W.
What form are Jong AZ and NAC Breda in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.77x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
42%
2.38
22%
4.47
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.46
1.65
NAC Breda xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
8%
12.43
6%
17.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.65 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 14W 4D 22L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda's form line: 8W 12D 20L from 40 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.15 PPG, NAC Breda on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 0.74 PPG from 19 outings (4W 2D 13L). That actually lags their 1.15 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 2W 7D 10L from 19 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.15 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 14W 4D 22L in their last 40 games (1.15 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 8W 12D 20L in their last 40 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or NAC Breda away?
Jong AZ's home record (0.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.74 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and NAC Breda runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when Jong AZ won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
0
Draws
5
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 1, NAC Breda have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2024, when Jong AZ 2-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 53%, NAC Breda 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Jong AZ and 68% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 32% of games; NAC Breda in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Jong AZ's games and 58% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Jong AZ's matches and 68% of NAC Breda's.
Do Jong AZ and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.