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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong AZ.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat Jong AZ 0-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.64 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.90 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.90 / defence 1.29 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.00 / defence 1.12, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 34% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 44%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, Jong PSV U21 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.22 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights