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Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC OSS beat Jong AZ 0-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.51 xG and FC OSS 1.40 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong AZ fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.86 / defence 1.10 against FC OSS attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 40% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 35%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 67%, FC OSS 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

FC OSS's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.28 PPG, FC OSS 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights