Jong AZ 2-3 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's home record at AFAS Trainingscomplex: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
FC Eindhoven have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to FC Eindhoven, who have claimed 3 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that FC Eindhoven have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 67% versus FC Eindhoven 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 72% | FC Eindhoven 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.59 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.348 / defence 0.978 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.100 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.470. Jong AZ carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 1.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Jong AZ games / 46 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 37% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 36%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | FC Eindhoven 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 80% | FC Eindhoven 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 37% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Jong AZ 1.59 / FC Eindhoven 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.348 / def 0.978 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.100 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.58
FC Eindhoven xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Jong AZ 2 - 3 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 37% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven?
Record (6 meetings): Jong AZ 0W | Draws 3 | FC Eindhoven 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (1.10x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
37%
2.71
27%
3.75
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.18
1.58
FC Eindhoven xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
8%
13.18
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.58 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 19W 10D 17L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 12W 19D 15L from 46 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.20 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 1.96 PPG from 23 outings (14W 3D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Jong AZ are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 7W 9D 7L from 23 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong AZ are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.20 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 19W 10D 17L in their last 46 games (1.46 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 12W 19D 15L in their last 46 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.96 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Jong AZ or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong AZ have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Eindhoven have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
3
Draws
6
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when FC Eindhoven 3-2 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 56%, FC Eindhoven 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Jong AZ and 52% for FC Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 30%; FC Eindhoven in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 52% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Jong AZ's matches and 52% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Eindhoven defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Jong AZ 2-3 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.59 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.58 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.35 / defence 0.98 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.10 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 37% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 36%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 72%, FC Eindhoven 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.46 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.