Jong AZ vs Emmen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and Emmen meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 4W 2D 4L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Emmen (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Emmen have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Jong AZ, 1.60 for Emmen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Emmen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Emmen hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with Emmen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Emmen have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 62% and Emmen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 69% | Emmen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.33 xG and Emmen 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.866 / defence 0.964 | Emmen attack 1.061 / defence 1.393. League average goals — home 1.933 / away 1.580. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.393 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Jong AZ games / 45 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 54% | Draw 20% | Emmen 26%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.85 | Draw 5.00 | Emmen 3.85. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean.
Poisson projects 3.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 60% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 26 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 54% | Draw 20% | Emmen 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 72% | xG Jong AZ 2.33 / Emmen 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.866 / def 0.964 | Emmen attack 1.061 / def 1.393 | league avg home 1.933 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Emmen xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Emmen kick off?
Jong AZ vs Emmen is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 26 February 2027 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Where is Jong AZ vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Emmen part of?
Jong AZ vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 54% chance of winning, Emmen a 26% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Jong AZ and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Emmen?
Record (9 meetings): Jong AZ 2W | Draws 2 | Emmen 5W.
What form are Jong AZ and Emmen in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Emmen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.87x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (1.06x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 47/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
54%
1.86
20%
5.07
26%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.95
1.62
Emmen xG
1.86
54%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
3.77
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.62
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
10%
10.29
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
3%
38.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.62 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong AZ come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 5D 24L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.27 PPG from 45 outings (16W 9D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.27 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Jong AZ's home form reads 6W 2D 14L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 0.86 points per game from 22 outings (5W 4D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Emmen's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.67 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Emmen in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Emmen in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 16W 5D 24L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Emmen have gone 16W 9D 20L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Emmen away?
Jong AZ's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.91 PPG; Emmen away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Emmen have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 8 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
2
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Emmen?
From 9 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Emmen 3-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 50%, Emmen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Jong AZ and 68% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 32% of games; Emmen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 59% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Jong AZ's matches and 68% of Emmen's.
Do Jong AZ and Emmen tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Emmen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.