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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong AZ and Emmen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ and Emmen finished level at 1-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.70 xG and Emmen 2.20 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Emmen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.26 / defence 1.37 against Emmen attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 29% | Draw 22% | Emmen 48%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 71%, Emmen 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Emmen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.32 PPG, Emmen 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights