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Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat Jong Ajax 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC OSS beat Jong Ajax 1-2 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.75 xG and FC OSS 1.34 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against FC OSS attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 47% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 29%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 56%, FC OSS 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

FC OSS's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 0.93 PPG, FC OSS 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights