🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jong Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Eindhoven beat Jong Ajax 1-3 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.55 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.04 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.80 / defence 0.99 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.71 / defence 1.12, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 49% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 25%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a FC Eindhoven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 51%, FC Eindhoven 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 0.85 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights